YX 4404 · LGA → ILM

departs 3:52 PM ET · arrives 5:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4404 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?