YX 4410 · LGA → PIT

departs 10:03 AM ET · arrives 11:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4410 · LGA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?