YX 4415 · MSN → DCA

departs 4:24 PM CT · arrives 7:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.15 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4415 · MSN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?