YX 4421 · RDU → BNA

departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 5:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4421 · RDU → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?