YX 4435 · DSM → DCA

departs 2:14 PM CT · arrives 5:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.41 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4435 · DSM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?