YX 4444 · MEM → DCA

departs 6:28 PM CT · arrives 9:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MEM are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4444 · MEM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?