YX 4446 · DCA → PIT

departs 1:14 PM ET · arrives 2:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4446 · DCA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?