Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4455
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4455 · CMH → ORD
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
43%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.74 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.