Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4461 · LGA → MEM
departs 1:51 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.