Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4461 · LGA → MEM
departs 2:01 PM ET · arrives 4:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.