Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4491 · LGA → DCA
departs 7:43 AM ET · arrives 9:13 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.