YX 4509 · EYW → PHL

departs 2:44 PM ET · arrives 6:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
33%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at EYW that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip2.67 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4509 · EYW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?