Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4512 · CHA → ORD
departs 6:13 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave CHA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
CHA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA
Weather at each end
CHA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.