Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4512 · CHA → ORD
departs 6:13 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CHA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
CHA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA
Weather at each end
CHA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.99 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.