Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

YX 4512 · CHA → ORD

departs 6:13 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Odds over time

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 3.3d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ORD?

  1. On time or early
    79%
  2. 15–30 min late
    6%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    3%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    4%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.