Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 4512 · CHA → ORD
departs 6:13 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 22%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave CHA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
CHA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA
Weather at each end
CHA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.