Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4523 · MSN → DCA
departs 12:43 PM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 13%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MSN that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
MSN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.20 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.