Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 4543 · DCA → ACK
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ACK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ACK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.