Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4545
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4545 · PHL → ACK
departs 1:33 PM ET · arrives 3:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,143 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ACK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.