Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4577
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4577 · LGA → GSO
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.