YX 4583 · DCA → LGA

departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±1 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4583 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?