Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4589
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4589 · LGA → ORF
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 42%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.