Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4589
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
YX 4589 · LGA → ORF
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to ORF?
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On time or early
50%
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15–30 min late
0%
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30 min–1 hour late
14%
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1–2 hours late
13%
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Over 2 hours late
8%
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Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.