Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4597
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4597 · IND → ORD
departs 6:33 AM ET · arrives 7:23 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.