Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4598
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4598 · LGA → DTW
departs 8:44 PM ET · arrives 10:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 58%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.