YX 4634 · STL → DCA

departs 5:57 AM CT · arrives 9:21 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.21 in

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4634 · STL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?