YX 4644 · LGA → LIT

departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4644 · LGA → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?