YX 4647 · BUF → DCA

departs 11:44 AM ET · arrives 1:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4647 · BUF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?