Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4655
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4655 · PIT → LGA
departs 4:54 PM ET · arrives 6:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.