YX 4663 · ORD → BWI

departs 6:41 PM CT · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±3 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4663 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?