Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4678 · STL → BOS
departs 7:51 PM CT · arrives 11:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
41%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,167 ft Visibility 4.33333 mi Precip 0.27 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.