YX 4680 · DCA → STL

departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4680 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?