YX 4728 · LGA → STL

departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,857 ft Visibility5.71429 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4728 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?