YX 4732 · MEM → DCA

departs 5:59 AM CT · arrives 9:26 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4732 · MEM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?