YX 4735 · DCA → ATL

departs 5:57 PM ET · arrives 8:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4735 · DCA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?