Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4746 · ORD → MDT
departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 11:11 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MDT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDT?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.81 in
MDT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.