Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4756
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4756 · RDU → ORD
departs 1:19 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 21%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.