Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4776
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 4776 · ORD → CVG
departs 10:00 PM CT · arrives 12:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 24%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±2 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.