YX 4777 · CMH → DCA

departs 4:13 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4777 · CMH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?