YX 4783 · GSO → DCA

departs 10:40 AM ET · arrives 12:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

GSO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4783 · GSO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?