YX 4784 · DCA → ILM

departs 8:49 AM ET · arrives 10:32 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4784 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?