YX 4789 · DCA → ECP

departs 11:32 AM ET · arrives 1:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4789 · DCA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?