YX 4802 · DCA → SDF

departs 8:51 AM ET · arrives 11:01 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4802 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?