YX 5613 · LGA → MKE

departs 11:13 AM ET · arrives 12:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5613 · LGA → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?