Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5643 · SDF → LGA
departs 11:42 AM ET · arrives 1:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.