Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5643 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

YX 5643 · SDF → LGA

departs 11:42 AM ET · arrives 1:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±5 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SDF that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ 11am departures from SDF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.27 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5643 · SDF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?