Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5645
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5645 · MSN → DCA
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 8:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MSN that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
MSN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.12 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.