YX 5649 · CMH → JFK

departs 12:30 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,167 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5649 · CMH → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?