YX 5685 · JFK → PIT

departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5685 · JFK → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?