Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5750
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 5750 · JFK → DCA
departs 8:35 AM ET · arrives 10:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.