Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5809 · ORF → BOS
departs 11:55 AM ET · arrives 1:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.